https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2603.03251
Several other factors made 2025 warmer than expected, and some are likely to continue to increase in 2026. They include:
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I want to take a quick beat here to point out where we are in fact seeing some enforcement around prediction markets. Last week, Kalshi made its first ever disclosure related to an insider trading investigation, and fined the traders.